When King Felipe VI travels to China this November, Madrid will describe it as a gesture of goodwill and opportunity. In reality, it is a calculated gamble that may cost Spain and Europe far more than it gains. Behind the ceremonial smiles lies a strategic miscalculation, engaging Beijing on Beijing’s terms at a time when the European Union is struggling to build a coherent position on China.
Spain’s government has chosen a moment of intense geopolitical competition to pursue closer trade ties with a power that increasingly uses economic leverage as a political weapon. The visit, the first by a Spanish monarch in nearly two decades, is meant to open doors for Spanish exports and attract Chinese investment in green technology and electric vehicles. Yet what looks like pragmatism could easily become dependence. China’s record across Europe is clear: investment comes with strings attached, market access is rarely reciprocal, and promises of partnership often conceal the aim of gaining influence over critical infrastructure and policy choices.
Spain’s enthusiasm for Chinese capital also reveals a worrying short-sightedness. Madrid faces a large trade deficit with China and believes new projects can offset it. In practice, they seldom do. Chinese investors import their own supply chains, labour, and technology. They create limited local value while drawing European know-how into Chinese networks. Spain risks seeing its renewable energy and manufacturing sectors absorbed into Beijing’s wider strategic designs, leaving it exposed if relations sour or global trade tensions rise.
For Europe, the implications are larger than one visit. Spain’s tilt toward Beijing comes as the European Union tries to adopt a “de-risking” strategy, reducing dependence on Chinese goods and technologies. When an EU member breaks ranks, it weakens the credibility of that approach and gives China a wedge to exploit divisions inside the bloc. This fragmentation is exactly what Chinese diplomacy aims for. Every bilateral agreement, every royal handshake, chips away at Europe’s collective leverage.
The timing is equally troubling. The United States has warned its allies that Beijing is using economic outreach to expand its political reach. Spain’s dismissal of those concerns may please Chinese officials in the short term but will raise questions within NATO about Madrid’s reliability as a strategic partner. Europe cannot afford to appear divided when transatlantic coordination is central to addressing security and technological challenges posed by China.
The visit also risks sending a confusing signal to smaller EU members that lack Spain’s diplomatic weight. If Madrid can pursue its own path, why should others show restraint? The result would be a patchwork of national strategies, each competing for short-term investment and each eroding the unity that Europe painstakingly built.
Spain has every right to seek new markets and partners. But partnership must not come at the cost of strategic autonomy. The lesson from other European experiences with Chinese investment is clear: dependency begins quietly, with flattering promises and soft loans, and ends with political compromise. Madrid should remember that Beijing’s ultimate objective is not friendship but influence.
King Felipe VI’s visit could have been an opportunity to reaffirm Europe’s common approach, anchored in transparency and reciprocity. Instead, it risks becoming a symbol of European disunity. If Spain chooses to play Beijing’s game, it may soon discover that the price of Chinese goodwill is far higher than it expected and that the rest of Europe will pay part of that price too.
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