China has adopted a new strategic move to win some of its powerful neighbours in
Southeast Asia and East Asia out of the US and Japan’s influence, while at the same time
continuing its military dominance in the South China Sea and other parts of the Pacific,
underscoring the long-held view that Beijing can undertake any step that would fulfil its
geo-political designs in the Indo-Pacific region.
On August 13, China and Indonesia held in Jakarta their first two-plus-two dialogue,
involving senior officials from their foreign and defence ministries. At the dialogue, China
was led by Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Sun Weidong and Deputy Director of the Office
for International Military Cooperation of the Central Military Commission Zhang Baoqun,
Indonesia was represented by Abdul Kadir Jailani, Director General of Asia-Pacific and
African Affairs at the country’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Brigadier General
Oktaheroe Ramsi, Secretary Director General for Defence Strategy at the Ministry of
Defence.
In June, China held a similar two-plus-two dialogue with South Korea. However, the
dialogue was at the vice-ministerial level, which was described by Chinese experts as a
mechanism that would help address China-South Korea differences, tackle risks, increase
mutual trusts and inject stability into the region.
It is debatable whether such dialogues will help China in increasing mutual trust with
Jakarta and Seoul, given territorial disputes with them. But they somehow let China
leverage its coercive diplomacy in the region, say China watchers.
Significantly, Indonesia is not a claimant in the South China Sea, but its Exclusive
Economic Zone in the North Natuna Sea falls within China’s imaginary nine-dash line, on
which the East Asian country bases its claim to 90% of the waterbody of the Western
Pacific Ocean, estimated to possess 11 billion barrels of untapped oil and 190 trillion
cubic feet of natural gas.
In the background of the fact that the South China Sea, the East China Sea and the
Taiwan Strait have turned into flash points on account of China’s growing assertiveness, it
has to be seen how South Korea and Indonesia adjust to Beijing-led order in the region.
Particularly, when there are reports which suggest that both South Korea and Indonesia
are trying to move closer to the US-led Quad because of China’s growing militaristic
aggression in the region.
On August 19, Chinese Coast Guard vessels collided with patrol boats of the Philippines
Coast Guard during a confrontation near the Sabina Shoal in the Spratly Islands of the
South China Sea. It took place when two coast guard vessels belonging to the Philippines
were on the way to resupply personnel on Flat Island, called by Manila as Patag and
Lawak Island. China calls this Island as Nanshan. The Philippines Coast Guard said due
to the collision its vessels suffered massive structural damages.
This occurred less than two weeks after two Chinese aircraft dropped flares in the path of
a Philippine Air Force fighter jet conducting a routine patrol over the Scarborough Shoal in
the South China Sea.
Earlier on June 17, personnel of the Chinese Coast Guard, armed with knives, axes,
machetes, and hammers, attacked members of the Philippines Coast Guard near the Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea. Several Filipino Coast Guard personnel
were injured, while one of them lost a thumb in the clash. Besides, the Chinese Coast
Guard damaged the Philippines Coast Guard’s equipment, including guns and inflatable
boats.
Following these incidents, as per various media reports, the Philippines urged China to
de-escalate tension in the South China Sea. However, instead of heeding Manila’s calls
for de-escalation of tension in the region, Beijing has apparently chosen to intensify it with
Chinese Coast Guard personnel deliberately targeting Manila’s interests in the South
China Sea.
In the midst of such developments, both Japan and the US have assured the Philippines
that they would support Manila in ramping up its security in the region. On August 20, the
US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, while condemning China’s aggressive push
in the South China Sea, discussed with his Philippines counterpart Eduardo M Ano on the
disbursal of $500 million that America recently announced for Manila under the Indo-
Pacific Security supplemental Appropriations Act aimed at helping the Southeast Asian
nation modernise its armed forces and coastguard.
The US and the Philippines are bound by the 73-year-old Mutual Defence Treaty, which
maintains that an attack on either country in the Pacific region would prompt the
partnered countries to act and meet the common dangers. “The 1951 US-Philippines
Mutual Defence Treaty extends to armed attacks on Philippines armed forces, public
vessels, or aircraft, including those of its Coast Guard—anywhere in the South China
Sea,” US State Department spokesperson Vedant Patel said on August 20.
This is what rattles China; there is a palpable anxiety among authorities in Beijing over
the growing Japan-Philippines defence relationship. On July 8, Tokyo and Manila signed
the Reciprocal Access Agreement, allowing the deployment of troops on each other’s soil.
This pact, signed in the midst of growing concerns in the world over China’s rising military
power, has been justified by Japan with its Ministry of Foreign Affairs stating that it will
“further promote security and defence cooperation between the two countries and firmly
support peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region.” China looks at this pact as a
mechanism which would “incite bloc confrontation or a new Cold War.”
Through the two-plus-two dialogue mechanism, Beijing wants to make things favourable
for it. “China wants to better leverage its rising military power to bring the politico-military
orientation of key neighbours like South Korea and Indonesia in line with a China-centred
regional order,” South China Morning Post quoted David Arase, resident professor of
international politics with the Hopkins-Nanjing Centre as saying.
However, both Japan and the US are actively working with the countries of the Indo-
Pacific region for the rule of law, free and open seas, safe and secure sea lanes, high
quality development and transparent governance. As such, it has to be seen how China’s
new strategic move through two-plus-two dialogues weighs against Japan and the US’s
growing influence in the region.
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