NAYPYIDAW: The devastating 7.7-magnitude earthquake that struck Myanmar near Mandalay has left at least 1,000 people dead, with fears that the toll could rise to over 10,000, according to estimates from the US Geological Survey. This disaster, the most powerful quake to hit Myanmar in over a century, has deepened the country’s ongoing humanitarian crisis. Neighboring Thailand also felt the tremors, with at least 10 casualties reported in Bangkok. Rescuers there are scrambling to free individuals trapped under the rubble of a collapsed high-rise still under construction.
Myanmar, already suffering from an escalating civil war, now faces additional turmoil as the earthquake exacerbates an already dire situation. The country has been in chaos since the military coup in 2021, when Senior General Min Aung Hlaing overthrew the democratically elected government, sparking widespread resistance. For years, armed ethnic groups and pro-democracy forces have fought against the junta, seizing vast swathes of territory. The earthquake has further destabilized the country, affecting infrastructure, displacement patterns, and the distribution of aid.
In western Myanmar, where the fighting is particularly intense, rebel groups have made significant advances. The Arakan Army (AA), an ethnic armed group, has taken control of nearly all major townships in Rakhine State, with only two still under junta control. The earthquake’s destruction has disrupted military supply lines and further weakened the junta’s grip, potentially accelerating its losses in key battlegrounds. Resistance forces have already seized over 200 military outposts and headquarters, forcing junta troops to rely heavily on airstrikes and artillery shelling to maintain control. The natural disaster has worsened conditions for civilians caught in the crossfire, with over 3.5 million displaced and in urgent need of food, medical care, and shelter.
Despite the worsening humanitarian crisis, the junta has continued its repressive measures, restricting aid distribution in many areas, especially those under rebel control. Reports indicate that military authorities are limiting access to relief camps, preventing critical supplies from reaching affected populations. The United Nations’ World Food Program warns that the earthquake could push food insecurity to catastrophic levels, with up to 15 million people at risk of hunger by the end of the year.
The earthquake’s impact extends beyond the battlefield. Myanmar is home to several strategic projects backed by China and India, including oil and gas pipelines, economic corridors, and port infrastructure in Rakhine State. While China has historically maintained relations with both the junta and rebel factions to safeguard its investments, the increasing instability could disrupt these projects. India, too, has vested interests in Myanmar through the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Corridor, but its development has faced repeated delays. With the junta losing territorial control, both Beijing and New Delhi may be forced to reassess their strategies in the region.
Amidst this crisis, Min Aung Hlaing is expected to attend the upcoming BIMSTEC summit in Thailand. The meeting, which was already significant given Myanmar’s ongoing conflict and its impact on regional stability, now takes on even greater urgency. The junta chief is seeking diplomatic recognition and possible foreign assistance, though his attendance may also provoke backlash from countries opposed to his regime.
While Myanmar’s military rulers had previously announced plans for elections in late 2025 or early 2026, the reality on the ground suggests that free and fair voting remains a distant prospect. With much of the country beyond the junta’s control and opposition leaders, including Aung San Suu Kyi, still imprisoned, any such election is unlikely to be credible.
The earthquake has added yet another layer of hardship to an already devastated nation. As Myanmar grapples with the aftermath of the disaster, the civil war rages on, with no clear resolution in sight. The combination of political turmoil, armed conflict, and humanitarian catastrophe threatens to push the country further into chaos, with millions of lives hanging in the balance.
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