A perfectly curved horseshoe bend has been carved over millennia by the waters of the Yarlung Tsangpo, Tibet’s longest river, around a Himalayan peak. The image of the Grand Bend in Motuo County (which means “hidden flower”) appears in travel catalogs for adventurous tourists seeking untouched nature, writes Guido Santevecchi in the Corriere della Sera, one of Italy’s primary newspapers.
After extensive studies, Chinese engineers have determined that this spectacular area offers the ideal conditions for constructing another “marvel”: a colossal dam intended to power the world’s most powerful hydroelectric plant. The location is considered perfect by technicians from Beijing because, after flowing west to east across the Tibetan plateau, the Yarlung Tsangpo makes a 180-degree turn and then drops about 2,000 meters over just 50 kilometers. Harnessing this water’s force could generate 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity per year—three times the capacity of the Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze River, currently holding the record for power generation.
To divert and channel the Himalayan river’s waters into turbines, between four and six 20-kilometer-long tunnels will need to be drilled through the Namcha Barwa mountain, which towers nearly 8,000 meters. It is a staggering engineering challenge, made even more daunting by the high seismic activity of the Tibetan region.
After years of feasibility studies, the Chinese government approved the project on December 25.
The Xinhua news agency reported that the plant will “accelerate efforts toward high-quality development, making an important contribution to the transition to green energy.” It will help China meet its commitment to reduce coal usage and achieve “carbon neutrality” by 2060, a target set by President Xi Jinping. Currently, China relies on coal for about 60% of its electricity and continues to build coal plants, with emissions expected to peak around 2030.
Beijing claims the new Yarlung Tsangpo project prioritizes environmental protection. Xinhua added that the dam will bring “jobs, prosperity, and happiness to the Xizang Autonomous Region” (the official Chinese term for Tibet, occupied and annexed by the People’s Republic in the 1950s). Since 2000, the central government has either completed or planned 193 hydroelectric projects in Tibet, including about two dozen along the Yarlung Tsangpo. However, the 60-gigawatt dam on the “Roof of the World” promises to generate more energy than all the others combined. Clean energy and social development—it sounds like good news.
Yet technical and political evaluations of the mega-project in the international press have been far less enthusiastic. The New York Times dubbed it a “mysterious dam,” noting that no details on costs or construction timelines have been disclosed. In 2020, an estimated budget of $137 billion over ten years was suggested, but even that is uncertain. The project’s logistical challenges are immense: access roads must be built from scratch to transport materials, machinery, and workers into the remote and perilous Motuo region. Additionally, the dam’s walls will have to rise nearly half a kilometer from the canyon floor where the river flows at the Grand Bend. The electricity produced will be transmitted thousands of kilometers away to Chinese provinces, as the Tibetan Autonomous Region, with fewer than four million residents, has no need for 300 billion kilowatt-hours annually—enough to power 300 million homes.
The Chinese government’s announcement did not include figures or start and end dates. Analysts speculate that the Politburo is leveraging the project to stimulate GDP growth, following a sharp economic slowdown, by investing in colossal infrastructure projects that move capital and create jobs—perhaps the “happiness” mentioned by the Chinese media.
However, the record-breaking dam atop the world is likely to exacerbate tensions between Beijing and New Delhi. After flowing through Tibet, the Yarlung Tsangpo enters Indian territory, where it becomes the Brahmaputra River, before continuing into Bangladesh as the Jamuna. China and India only recently stabilized their relations after a deadly skirmish in June 2020 in the Ladakh region, where dozens of soldiers were killed in brutal hand-to-hand combat with spiked clubs, shovels, and stones—firearms are prohibited by a bilateral agreement to prevent escalation between nuclear powers. Moreover, the Chinese military recently announced that it has extended its electrical grid to border outposts in Tibet’s Ngari Prefecture, stating that it provides “green energy to ease the harsh lives of soldiers.”
India’s Ministry of External Affairs reacted to Beijing’s dam announcement by warning that it “implies significant ecological disruptions and disregards the water interests of downstream states.” The Times of India accused China of trying to “weaponize water” by controlling flow at the source, potentially cutting Brahmaputra water supply during dry seasons and triggering artificial floods during monsoons. The EurAsian Times wrote that this “Mother of all Chinese dams” could severely impact agriculture and water access for hundreds of millions of people downstream. Shivshankar Menon, a former Indian National Security Advisor, told the Financial Times, “There are all kinds of fears, and the geopolitical situation only heightens them. There is always mistrust between the parties.”
Geologists have also raised concerns, noting that the Grand Bend, identified as the dam site, sits atop the Indo-Tsangpo Suture, an active Himalayan fault line. The most recent earthquake in Tibet, in January, measured 7.1 on the Richter scale and killed over 100 people, despite the region’s sparse population. A future quake damaging a dam capable of holding up to nine billion cubic meters of water during monsoon season, as experts predict, could cause catastrophic flooding downstream, including in India.
Some analysts suspect that China’s reluctance to disclose a construction timeline may be a strategy to advance the project far enough to present India with a fait accompli.
The hydroelectric plant is expected to be named after Motuo County, where it will be built. The area is home to about 15,000 villagers, some of whom may be displaced to make way for the massive energy complex. Authorities have promised new modern housing and improved income opportunities for those forced to leave their homes and farmland—another aspect of the “happiness” touted by Xinhua. But it is difficult to know what the people of Motuo truly think, as the Chinese government strictly controls access to Tibet. The BBC obtained footage and testimony last year showing how police violently suppressed protests against yet another dam project on the Jinsha River in Gangtuo (known as Kamtok in Tibetan). That project erased several villages and six monasteries, including Wontoe, famous for its 13th-century murals.
Xi Jinping’s China, drilling tunnels for a mega-dam in Tibet, is not alone in its ambitions. In the United States, Donald Trump has revived the “Drill, baby, drill” doctrine, urging American oil companies to drill relentlessly, without regard for environmental concerns.
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