European elections
Politics

European Elections: Winners and losers the day after

Hundreds of millions of Europeans have cast their votes in elections for 720 Members of the European Parliament, with a surge in support for far-right parties leading to an unexpected move by French President Emmanuel Macron to call early elections in France.

As the final results of the European parliamentary elections are being counted, the winners and losers across the EU’s 27 member states are becoming clear.

Italian leader Giorgia Meloni has solidified her influence in Brussels, capturing an estimated 28% of the vote. In contrast, French President Emmanuel Macron performed so poorly that he was forced to dissolve the parliament and call for snap elections.

The Winners:

  • France’s far-right National Rally triumphed, delivering a significant defeat to Macron.
  • The right-wing European People’s Party (EPP) remains the largest group in the Parliament, gaining 13 seats compared to 2019.
  • Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni emerged as a key player in the elections.

The Losers:

  • The Greens in Austria and Germany fared worse than anticipated.
  • The liberal Renew group lost 20 seats across different member states compared to 2019.
  • Germany’s Social Democrats, led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, tied for second place with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), both trailing behind the EPP.

First Estimates: An early estimate of election results by the European Parliament suggested that the Green and liberal Renew parties would each lose about 20 Members of the European Parliament (MEPs), weakening the pro-European majority needed to support top EU officials and legislation.

A projection released after all polls closed showed the Green party securing only 53 MEPs, down from 72 in March 2024. Renew, led by Macron, fell from 102 seats to 83, prompting the French president to take the drastic step of dissolving the National Assembly.

This decline in support for Macron’s pro-business liberals coincided with growing support for more extreme parties on the political spectrum. In France, projections indicated that the far-right National Rally (RN) secured 31.5% of the vote—more than double Macron’s total.

In Austria, the far-right FPÖ topped the poll, doubling its MEPs to six with 25.7% of the vote. In Germany, the Christian-Democrat CDU/CSU coalition was projected to receive over 30% of the vote, similar to its 29% in 2019, while the AfD came in third with 14.2%, just behind the Social Democrats.

Exit polls suggested that Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party performed much better than the opposition Democratic Party, which garnered an estimated 23.7% of the vote. However, Meloni’s coalition partners, Forza Italia and Lega, didn’t fare as well, receiving 10.5% and 8% of the vote, respectively.

Similar trends were observed in Spain, where the far-right Vox party is expected to increase its representation by two to three MEPs, and a new far-right populist party, “The Party Is Over,” is projected to gain its first two or three MEPs.

Estimated Results: After four days of voting, projections for the new legislative chamber are still not final.

In the Netherlands, voting took place on Thursday, and projections suggest that Geert Wilders’ right-wing PVV party will secure six seats. The GreenLeft-Labour alliance is forecasted to take eight Dutch seats, claiming a relative victory.

These elections, the largest multi-state democratic exercise in the world, will determine the composition of the European Parliament, which will deliberate on EU legislation over the next five years. The election comes after a tumultuous period marked by the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and a rising cost of living that has dominated voter concerns.

Tasks Ahead: One of the first tasks for the newly elected MEPs will be to approve the candidate for the European Commission presidency, with current President Ursula von der Leyen seeking a second term. No single party has a majority in the European Parliament, so coalitions are often needed to pass legislation.

The chamber has traditionally been dominated by two large groups: the center-right European People’s Party and the center-left Socialists. Since losing their combined majority in 2019, they have had to form informal alliances with parties such as the Greens and Liberals, and projections suggest they are unlikely to regain a majority in 2024. MEPs will also have a say on new legislative proposals, including the fate of the EU Green Deal, a set of laws aimed at reducing carbon emissions.

Each country is allocated a number of MEPs based on its population, ranging from 96 for Germany to just six each for Cyprus, Malta, and Luxembourg. For the first time since direct elections began in 1979, the count will not include the UK, whose 73 MEPs left after Brexit in February 2020.

 

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