Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, a stalwart of the country’s conservative establishment, was killed on May 19, 2024, when his helicopter crashed in a mountainous border region. The crash, which occurred during inclement weather and difficult terrain, led to an overnight search operation that eventually uncovered the wreckage and bodies. In response, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei declared a five-day period of public mourning.
A Loyalist’s Legacy
Raisi, 63, was a dedicated loyalist of the Islamic Republic since the Iranian Revolution of 1979, emerging as a prominent protégé of Supreme Leader Khamenei, who holds the ultimate authority in Iran. Before assuming the presidency in 2021, Raisi served in various roles within the judiciary, most notably as a prosecutor during the Iran-Iraq War. In 1988, he was part of a committee that sentenced thousands of political prisoners to death, earning him the nickname “Butcher of Tehran.” This role later subjected him to U.S. sanctions and international condemnation.
Since 2006, Raisi had also been a member of the Assembly of Experts, the body responsible for appointing and overseeing the supreme leader. Despite lacking charisma, Raisi was seen as a potential successor to Khamenei, who is now 85 years old.
Challenges and Controversies
Raisi’s presidency was marked by domestic turmoil and legitimacy crises. His controversial 2021 election victory, marked by a high number of disqualified candidates and a historically low voter turnout of less than 50%, underscored the challenges he faced. To maintain support from his conservative base, Raisi reinvigorated the morality police and reimposed strict religious regulations. This move triggered the “Women, Life, Freedom” protests in 2022, the largest in the Islamic Republic’s history, sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody. Raisi responded to these protests with harsh crackdowns, resulting in over 500 deaths and widespread repression.
Economically, Raisi’s tenure was marred by continued mismanagement, corruption, and the impact of U.S. sanctions. These factors contributed to a worsening economic situation in Iran, exacerbating public discontent.
A Confrontational Foreign Policy
Under Raisi’s leadership, Iran maintained a confrontational stance in its foreign policy, particularly toward the U.S. and Israel. Despite not having the final say in foreign policy decisions—an authority reserved for Khamenei—Raisi oversaw a state that distanced itself from the West. Iran under Raisi expanded uranium enrichment, blocked international inspectors, and moved closer to becoming a nuclear threshold state.
Raisi also pursued stronger ties with China and supported regional conflicts, including providing drones to Russia for use in Ukraine and arms to various Middle Eastern proxies. Following the outbreak of war in Gaza in October 2023, Iran navigated a delicate balance of enabling its proxies to confront Israel and the U.S. while avoiding direct confrontation, a balance momentarily disrupted by direct attacks on Israel.
Implications of Raisi’s Death
Raisi’s death leaves a significant void in Iran’s conservative leadership. Under Iranian law, his death means that First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber, a figure similar to Raisi, will serve as interim president. Iran is also required to hold presidential elections within 50 days, a process that will likely see the supreme leader play a key role in selecting a successor.
As Iran faces both internal unrest and external pressures, the conservative leadership in Tehran is expected to tighten its grip domestically, potentially leading to increased repression and election manipulation. Internationally, Iran may continue to strengthen alliances with non-Western countries and engage in calculated confrontations with traditional adversaries. Raisi’s passing marks a significant turning point for a country already at a critical juncture.
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