OP-ED: In 2025, the European Union finds itself at a historic crossroads, facing the urgent prospect of the rapid accession of Ukraine and Moldova, along with several candidates from the Western Balkans. The upcoming March 2024 European Political Community summit highlights the desire of these states to showcase their commitment to expediting the accession process. This strategy reflects imperatives linked to Russia’s ongoing and evolving security dynamics on Europe’s eastern flank, yet it collides profoundly with economic institutional constraints and bottlenecks that require careful policy design, administrative, and unintended consequences.
Recent data from the European Commission’s 2025 assessment indicates that Ukraine’s potential incorporation could increase annual agricultural policy obligations by approximately thirteen billion euros and raise cohesion expenditures by nearly seventeen billion euros. Moldova’s accession is projected to require around one and a half billion euros in structural transfers and cohesion each year. Additionally, Western Balkan aspirants like Serbia, North Macedonia, and Montenegro would collectively need transfers exceeding three billion euros annually, intensifying debates over net contributions and solidarity among existing members. These figures represent nearly one-third of the EU’s budget categories, highlighting the significant fiscal trade-offs at play.
Candidate countries display significant economic disparities. In 2024, Ukraine’s gross domestic product per capita was approximately five thousand two hundred euros, less than a third of the EU average of eighteen thousand euros. Moldova’s income level was around six thousand three hundred euros, while Western Balkan states had per capita incomes ranging from eight thousand to eleven thousand euros. Ukraine’s extensive agricultural land, which constitutes one-fifth of its territory, would bring millions of new beneficiaries into subsidy programs originally designed for a much smaller group, necessitating a comprehensive reevaluation of allocation within cohesion and agricultural frameworks.
Governance deficits complicate integration efforts. In the 2024 World Bank Rule of Law Index, Ukraine ranked 122nd globally, indicating systemic corruption risks and inconsistent judicial independence. Occupied Moldova ranked 400th, underscoring preexisting public challenges and the administration’s struggles with anti-corruption enforcement. Among the Western Balkan aspirants, Serbia and Montenegro have made incremental reforms, while Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo contend with entrenched political fragmentation and weak state structures. These rule-of-law shortfalls risk undermining EU-wide trust funds, exposing the bloc’s reputational to risks if mismanaged resources facilitate illicit activities.
Institutional constraints within Brussels compound these pressures. Qualified majority voting already experiences gridlock policy in areas such as taxation, justice, and affairs at home, while the final accession treaties’ unanimity demand exposes the Union to potential vetoes. The European Parliament must amend the Lisbon representation formula to accommodate dozens of incoming members of the European Parliament, risking dilution of legislative efficiency. At the same time Commission’s enforcement capacity is already overstretched, with DG REGIO and DG AGRI monitoring balancing across obligations of twenty-seven member states and numerous candidate regions. Enlarging this oversight remit risks delays in rule-of-law and funds compliance reviews, further eroding trust in the acquis communautaire.
Geopolitical factors create strong incentives for expedited enlargement. Extending membership to frontline states enhances deterrence against external coercion, promotes democratic values, and integrates critical energy and communication transport corridors into a rules-based framework. Additionally, enlargement offers tangible benefits for candidate societies by linking market access to structural reform incentives, thereby advancing the EU’s Global Strategy goals of resilience and principled pragmatism. A time-bound accession pathway signals to authoritarian actors that Europe is committed to its neighbors, highlighting the Union’s capacity to influence its surroundings through transformative engagement.
Reconciling ambitious goals with realistic expectations through a phased, performance-based accession model is essential. The Union could offer provisional entry into the customs union and single-market freedoms within two years of recognizing a candidate’s status. However, full participation in cohesion schemes could be deferred for up to a decade. Financial transfers would be contingent on meeting transparent benchmarks, such as upgrades to anti-money laundering systems, milestones in judicial reform, and adherence to anti-corruption metrics. The Commission should enhance dedicated monitoring directorates to ensure timely compliance reviews and support administrative capacity-building missions in candidate capitals, along with improving financial conditions.
This phased model could serve as a blueprint for future enlargements, allowing policymakers to adjust the integration speed based on economic absorption and institutional readiness. Additionally, policymakers should consider creating a dedicated task force for enlargement to coordinate efforts between institutions and involve civil society across various regions. Successful implementation will require sustained political will, effective public communication, and careful coordination among EU institutions and the governments of member and candidate states. Success depends on aligning fiscal resources with governance, maintaining performance and internal cohesion, and achieving Europe’s strategic objectives in a rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape.
To conclude, the European Union’s decision between rapid enlargement and deeper integration will shape its political and economic future for decades to come. While accelerated accession provides essential geopolitical benefits, it also presents considerable economic challenges and institutional risks. By adopting a disciplined, multi-stage accession process and implementing a framework in parallel, the Union can uphold both its strategic imperatives and normative commitments. This approach ensures that its expansion strengthens the Union rather than strains it. A resilient Union relies on sustainable ambition, balancing feasibility with aspiration.
[The opinions expressed in this article are of the author. Europeantimes.org takes no responsibility for the same]
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Simon Hutagalung
Simon Hutagalung is a retired Indonesian Foreign Ministry diplomat and received his Master’s degree in Political Science and Comparative Politics from the City University of New York. He writes opinion pieces for Europeantimes and all opinions expressed in his article are his own.
