Chancellor Friedrich Merz is facing pressure as far-right groups gain ground in Germany this year. This disrupts the political balance and puts Germany’s future at risk. Together with like-minded far-right groups in other European countries, they represent a radical new direction for European democracy, which is being shaped by economic insecurity, migration fears and a crisis of trust in traditional mainstream parties.
The recent success of the far right in Germany must be understood within the context of the longer-term socio-economic and political trends which have shaped public perceptions of political competition in Germany. For many voters, in particular in Eastern Germany and in rural areas, ongoing high levels of inflation, increases in energy costs and stagnating wages have bred disillusionment with the main political parties and an impression that Berlin does not effectively address their particular needs. Furthermore, continued high levels of migration and rising concerns about security have fuelled perceptions of a crumbling culture. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) has framed these fears in an emotionally powerful way and positioned itself in direct opposition to a ‘ Failed political centre’, characterised by dull, technocratic communication and ineffectiveness. Trust in traditional parties has been lost, especially among the young, and the far right has filled the ensuing power vacuum with a compelling and innovative communication strategy. Online media have proven an important platform for the far right’s emergent discourse.
With the AfD having evolved from a protest movement into a powerful political force, its electorate no longer consists of transient supporters driven by current events. Their voter base has reached a loyal constituency as survey results document a marked increase in popularity. The party’s grip extends far beyond its traditional core support; the AfD has established a formidable presence in local offices, tightened up internal organisation, refined their messaging and forged a unified national strategy for the first time. The acceptance of a far-right political force at the heart of the German political process has become commonplace, and many an extreme right-wing view has gone mainstream. The mood on the AfD’s rise corresponds to the deep-seated discontent with the prevailing order and a fundamental shift in political identification.
Approval ratings of CDU/CSU-Chairman Friedrich Merz have been declining for months. Many believe him to be indecisive. His failure to implement clear policies on issues such as migration and welfare state reform also provokes discontent. The party leader of the biggest group in parliament seems unable to drive through a unified and effective economic stimulus package, even in times of record-low interest rates. Additionally, numerous internal clashes have been reported from the CDU, exacerbating the impression of a divided opposition at a time when support for the far-right AfD is said to be on the rise. Policy indecision on energy issues and climate change is no less significant a source of discontent. So why is Friedrich Merz trying to reclaim the right? It is an ineffective strategy that risks blurring the lines with the AfD, legitimising and stoking far-right nationalist rhetoric that has no place in modern, safe and democratic Europe. The effect on centrist sections of the electorate has been one of shock and confusion, leaving them wondering how the CDU could lose votes to the AfD at all, never mind continue to do so. A series of events that saw the entire European economy slump in recent months under the pressure of a US trade war has highlighted once again Merz’s lack of leadership in reacting to developments abroad.
Germany is facing significant challenges. The fragmentation of the political centre could disrupt the traditional pattern of coalition-building. A highly-divided parliament is likely to create legislative bottlenecks, as parties fail to reach an agreement on key policies. The instability of the German government will have substantial implications for the EU, where Germany is a core player in key policy areas. A weakened German government would struggle to manage migration, deal with economic and security crises, and negotiate key EU policies. Meanwhile, the ongoing reorganisation of the German party system could lead to new alliances even as existing parties continue to fragment.
The risks are not confined to Germany. The result of a strong performance by far-right parties across Europe must be taken seriously, for they intend to take a radically distinct line in European affairs. Far-right parties in Germany and elsewhere in Europe want to break up the existing European Union institutions and reverse European integration in areas such as migration, defence, and economic affairs. A “MERKEL-FREI” result in Germany’s general election on 24 September would be more than just a domestic affair. It would paralyse the institutions of the EU and have the effect of suppressing political cooperation among EU member states, as individual countries pursue their own divergent national policies within what has remained of the single market. States ruled by far-right parties would seek to impose strict limits on migrant access to their labour markets and societies, a move that could soon lead to full-blown humanitarian catastrophes and legal conflicts with the EU’s courts. They would challenge fundamental democratic principles by taking on the country’s judiciary and policies to protect minority groups. Climate change would become an afterthought in European foreign policy. Most alarming, however, is the prospect that Germany’s “Nationalist Turn” would reorient the political centre of gravity of the European Union as a whole to the right – not just encouraging but emboldening the far-right in France, Italy, Austria, the Netherlands and the other Scandinavian countries.
How can mainstream parties win back trust and beat the far right? First, they must be willing to adopt more radical economic policies to address increasing inequality and the cost-of-living crisis. They must develop a clear message for the issues that affect ordinary people and communicate this message effectively online and offline. Investing in better civic education and media literacy could also help protect democracy from hate speech and propaganda. Finally, MEPs must become more engaged European politicians and forge closer cooperation on issues like security, migration and economic policy at the EU level. European politics is not just about technical competence: it’s also about emotion.
Germany is not alone in its crisis of volatile politics. Across Europe, there is a ‘crisis of the centre’, with a rise of populism and a decline in the credibility of key institutions. Now, Christian Democrat leader Fredric Merz seems to be losing ground. The same applies to other ‘mainstream’ parties. The right-wing Anti-Fascist Resistance (AfD) is gathering momentum. The possible consequences for Germany and the whole of Europe are serious. Will increasingly powerful far-right movements threaten European unity and democratic values? Or will centre-right leaders such as Merz now succeed in regaining public credibility and in drawing up a strong alternative to the extremes?
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Simon Hutagalung
Simon Hutagalung is a retired Indonesian Foreign Ministry diplomat and received his Master’s degree in Political Science and Comparative Politics from the City University of New York. He writes opinion pieces for Europeantimes and all opinions expressed in his article are his own.
