The Alternative for Germany (AfD) in Saxony-Anhalt achieved its most successful election in a German state so far and thus recorded an electoral breakthrough. In the state elections in Saxony-Anhalt, the radical-right party won 44 % of the votes and thus became the largest faction with 39 seats in the 83-seat state parliament. It fell, however, short of an absolute majority. As Europe’s largest economy and political power, Germany has for decades been a champion of liberal democracy and European integration. The election therefore not only has local but also far-reaching implications for Germany and for European integration.
Although the Elections in Saxony-Anhalt do not immediately change the Institutional Framework or even the Legal Structure of the European Union, the results of the Election will have far-reaching consequences for both Germany and European Integration in the long run. Firstly, the Election leads to an increase in political Fragmentation within Germany. Secondly, anti-EU and populist ideas normalise further within European Politics. And lastly, but most importantly for the European Union, the AFD will push for more hard-line positions in several areas of EU Policy, particularly when it comes to issues of Migration, Climate Change, European integration, as well as Security and Defense.
Germany’s radical right has risen at a time when, for decades, the main parties of government in post-war Germany, the CDU/CSU and the SPD, have been slowly losing ground to new challenger parties and to decline within their heartlands. The traditional German party landscape of CDU/CSU and SPD-dominated coalitions delivering sustained stability in government has been considerably destabilized in recent years. Their erosion threatens to make it much harder for parties of the center to form a stable government and deliver on legislation in a way that is meaningful and strong.
Saxony-Anhalt is not a state that is particularly representative of the rest of Germany. Yet for more than three decades after German reunification, its regions have been plagued by problems of economic underdevelopment, falling population numbers, and even exodus. Many Germans from the East still feel politically marginalized today. A significant proportion of citizens in the federal states of the East report feeling ignored by the federal government. And once again, frustration with the economy is also often coupled with a sense of alienation towards politics. At its core, this dissatisfaction is fed by deep-seated concern with irregular migration to Germany, with widespread neglect of the East by the federal government, with worry about the future of the social State and the economy, and last but not least with a sense of societal change that is happening too quickly.
By achieving a breakthrough in Saxony-Anhalt, the Alternative for Germany will place a huge amount of additional pressure on Germany’s established parties at both regional and federal level, and it will challenge essential aspects of Germany’s future orientation. Germany’s established parties will struggle to cope with a combination of pressing domestic policies, foreign policies, and European policies while at the same time seeking to maintain Germany’s long-standing commitment to defend the values of liberal democracy, human rights, individual freedom, and the rule of law. Because Germany is Europe’s single largest economy, the way that the country’s politics evolves will have a massive impact upon the stability of the entire continent and its ability to cope with several pressing structural challenges.
As things stand in Europe today, fragmentation of the European Parliament in recent years, not least among radical-right and Eurosceptic groups such as Patriots for Europe, the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and the Europe of Sovereign Nations (ESN) group, has created more problems for mainstream parties that seek to preserve and strengthen the European integration process than it has advantages. The structures of parties that have dominated the landscapes of their respective countries for decades are crumbling. As they do, they are failing to sustain the coalition governments which have been the hallmark of post-war stability in Germany and the structural framework of Germany’s constructive European policies. In providing a stable basis on which Governments could develop and pursue policies that had the potential to bring real benefits to their citizens, the Christian Democrats, the Free Democrats and the Social Democrats fulfilled an important purpose in the federal Republic. And, more specifically, their traditional rivalry provided the two principal determinants of German European policy, the CDU and the CSU on the Right and the SPD on the Left. In recent years, however, these parties have seen their traditional support bases melt down and have been struggling to shore up their crumbling structures and win back the voters who have abandoned them in droves in recent years.
Mainstream German parties are being put under pressure with respect to several areas of policy, including migration and asylum, security, climate change, and euro fiscal integration. About the first of these areas of policy, the implementation of the stricter border controls already rolled out in several member states, as well as an increase in the number of deportations, and a fundamental overhaul of the rules currently governing the Asylum procedure are all matters that are increasingly being put to the mainstream parties by the Alternative für Deutschland. The radical right party’s strict opposition to the German government’s military support for Ukraine, as well as its critical stance towards Russia and the economic sanctions currently in place, are giving rise to heated debate about Germany’s role in the world in defence policy.
There are several different scenarios that could play out in Germany. On the one hand, the radical right could remain for a long time to come a force in regional politics, which mainstream parties would prevent from entering into government with the help of strict political firewalls. In that case, the Alternative would be able to exert influence on the national agenda, but not to implement any of its own policies. Alternatively, the radical right could at some stage win so much support that it would also be called upon to join a federal government. If it did so, it would be able to exert influence on Germany’s migration policy, defines policy, climate policy and, above all, its European policy and transform the country into a criticism park for the rest of Europe. The main challenge for mainstream parties is to regain the trust of their voters, above all by addressing issues of economic inequality, developing a credible asylum policy, and portraying a clear concept for Germany’s future in Europe.
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Simon Hutagalung
Simon Hutagalung is a retired Indonesian Foreign Ministry diplomat and received his Master’s degree in Political Science and Comparative Politics from the City University of New York. He writes opinion pieces for Europeantimes and all opinions expressed in his article are his own.
