Taiwan has become the most salient geostrategic conflict point in East Asia. The island’s future is not merely a regional issue. It has the potential to test the limits of deterrence, the strength of alliances and the ability of the international community to manage affairs and maintain peace and stability when one party is determined to bring about a change of status by force.
The core of the conflict is the unresolved dispute between Beijing and Taipei. For China, reunification with Taiwan is a matter of national sovereignty and the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party. For Taiwan, on the other hand, it is a matter of durable de facto autonomy, of democracy and of a separate political identity which is increasingly accepted by the international community. For decades the United States has adhered to a policy of strategic ambiguity. This policy has the effect of supporting Taiwan’s defence while at the same time not committing to intervene in every contingency. This policy has so far averted war but has its limits, and these are becoming increasingly visible.
China’s growing military power adds to the danger. An expanding blue-water navy that is increasingly operational far from China’s shores is routinely used to project power into the area surrounding Taiwan. Air power, too, is now frequently projected into the same space, with repeated air sorties routinely penetrating into and then departing from Taiwan’s air defence identification zone. In addition to such power projection, China has made rapid progress in missile development and, indeed, in the deployment of an increasingly large variety of such arms around Taiwan. Furthermore, what appears to be a regular pattern of large-scale military exercises in the relevant area carried out by China is causing growing fear that these could be the precursor to a campaign of invasion or even simply a blockade in which Taiwan is progressively squeezed by a ring of military pressure. And all of this raises a growing danger of miscalculation. A military exercise intended to signal determination in the face of perceived opposition may suddenly and in a crisis be seen to be the beginning of hostilities.
Another, even more critical dimension to the Taiwan problem is the economic importance of Taiwan to the world. Taiwan stands at the heart of the global semiconductor industry, and it produces more than 90% of the world’s most advanced semiconductor chips. These chips are the heart of consumer electronics, from smartphones to high-end televisions. They are also critical to the development of artificial intelligence, as well as to several defence systems. Any disruption to production in the Taiwan Strait therefore would very quickly have far-reaching effects around the world, as supply chains are disrupted and production halted in key industries. In this sense, the problem of Taiwan is not simply a matter of a long-standing territorial dispute; it is also a critical component of the global economy.
However, the range of threats confronting Taiwan today extends far beyond that of conventional warfare. Cyberspace and information operations, including attempts to interfere in Taiwan’s politics, as well as to propagate disinformation regarding the island to undermine its international standing, pose increasingly serious challenges to the country’s democratic governance and stability. If allowed to succeed, such campaigns threaten to exhaust Taiwan’s institutions and to undermine the country’s stability by sowing confusion and fuelling social divisions.
Regional actors cannot stay on the sidelines. For Japan and South Korea, instability in the Taiwan Strait poses an immediate threat to their own security as well as to their vital trade routes. For this reason, both countries have drawn closer to the United States in recent years and now also coordinate their defence policies with Washington. In the face of China’s rising military power, countries in ASEAN are proceeding with caution and are for now adhering to a policy of neutrality. But as China’s economic might and military power continue to rise, the temptation to remain neutral will become increasingly difficult to maintain, especially if a crisis in the Taiwan Strait leads to disruptions to shipping and to sharp declines on the world markets. Even European countries are starting to perceive the growing importance of Taiwan for the economic security of and for the diplomatic deterrence of individual countries.
The risks of a serious conflict, whether intended or not, are substantial. The risk of unintended war as a result of an accident during military operations or due to the complicated web of alliances could lead to several countries becoming involved against their will. The economic costs of a blockage of the Taiwan Strait or even a war would be catastrophic and could lead to a serious crisis in the global supply of semiconductors and other products as well as to disruptions to global trade by sea.
To begin with, a more durable strategy toward deterring an attack on Taiwan is needed. The combination of military deterrence and diplomatic means of dealing with Beijing can best be implemented through increased cooperation between Washington and its regional partners. Greater military preparedness by the U.S. and its regional allies and an attempt to reduce the world’s dependence on the currently dominant chip-maker through the creation of a more geographically diverse supply chain of high-technology components for semiconductor manufacturing also would be wise. And, above all, open diplomatic channels with both Taipei and Beijing are crucial. It is through these lines of communication that both sides can engage in crisis communication, to prevent either side from misinterpreting an action by the other that could lead to a violent conflict before it is too late. And regional dialogue among ASEAN states as well as between the regional organisation and its extra-regional partners can contribute by supporting confidence-building measures and a framework of regional stability.
Taiwan’s security dilemma represents a concentration of the global crisis now in full swing, when conflicts of sovereignty, of power based on technology, and of rivalry between major powers are concentrated in one ‘hot spot’ after another. Although a very difficult challenge, it is by no means insurmountable. In the end, what is required is a determination to keep the island of Taiwan at peace, to safeguard its autonomy and prevent its being drawn into a wider war, while at the same time preventing its being incorporated into China against its will. Taiwan’s future will decide the future of East Asia and that of the international system as a whole.
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Simon Hutagalung
Simon Hutagalung is a retired Indonesian Foreign Ministry diplomat and received his Master’s degree in Political Science and Comparative Politics from the City University of New York. He writes opinion pieces for Europeantimes and all opinions expressed in his article are his own.
