President Xi Jinping is reportedly set to travel to North Korea, a development that the government in Seoul hopes will enable China to play a ‘mediating’ role to bring peace to the Korean Peninsula. Xi’s contacts with Washington and Moscow, and now a planned trip to North Korea, will be perceived by the government in Seoul as Chinese attempts to carve out a role for itself in efforts to bring balance to the region and to get the stalled peace process on track. While such symbolism will be on full display, the real test for China will be whether Mr Xi can go beyond words and reconcile various competing interests to cement China’s position as the key player in efforts to bring peace and stability to the region.
However, China’s moves are also strategic in nature and involve a calculation on the part of Xi Jinping in his efforts to influence the balance of power on the Korean Peninsula and open up a new chapter of regional diplomatic efforts. This is why Xi’s trip to the North is a follow-up to his denuclearisation talks with US President Donald Trump. For China, the issue of the North’s nuclear arms poses a challenge in its efforts to establish a connection between the pressure being put on Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear program and efforts to resolve other issues in the region. In the end, Xi is trying to pave a new path for the North to open up to Seoul and resolve the current crisis on the Korean Peninsula in a way that is in China’s best interest.
Beijing will struggle to keep up the appearance of being impartial while at the same time allowing North Korea to continue to develop its nuclear capability. China’s position is further complicated by the increasing involvement of Russia on the Korean Peninsula, where it is actively courting the North, as well as the closer alignment between Japan and the US in the face of Chinese aggression.
So, how will this visit unfold? There are three possible scenarios, each with its own implications for the Korean Peninsula and the wider region. In the best-case scenario for the international community, Xi Jinping will be able to persuade Pyongyang to return to talks on denuclearisation with a view to their implementation. At the worst, North Korea could use the visit to convey its determination to resist continued pressure from the international community to denuclearise, while receiving greater support from China. A middle ground scenario is when Xi’s visit becomes an example of high-level diplomatic activity full of warm words and glad-handing with little substance in terms of actual progress towards peace on the Korean Peninsula.
Previous attempts by the great powers to mediate a solution to the problems posed by North Korea have failed for several structural reasons, not least of which has been the difficulties encountered in persuading North Korea to denuclearise and for it to reach a satisfactory compromise with the United States and South Korea. A major reason for these failures, however, is that while China, as a neighbouring country, has been able to obtain concessions from North Korea in the past in return for Beijing’s support, Chinese interventions into Korean affairs are viewed with extreme suspicion by all parties to the conflict on the Korean Peninsula, and are seen to be largely in China’s own self-interest. The recent emergence of Russia as a supporter of Pyongyang will likely only serve to further exacerbate the problems faced by the West in attempting to put sufficient pressure on North Korea to bring about a successful conclusion to the current cycle of dialogue. Japan, meanwhile, will be extremely cautious in its dealings with North Korea, preferring instead to coordinate with the United States in its attempt to bring an end to hostilities on the Korean Peninsula. In the end, as has been the case in the past, the Korean peninsula will continue to be heavily influenced by outside actors, and any attempts by the great powers to shape events on the Peninsula will inevitably run into conflict.
Xi must turn the anticipated visit to Pyongyang into a success story. That will require efforts on the part of the Chinese President to coordinate with the U.S. in order to bring sufficient pressure on Pyongyang to denuclearise. Xi must also be wary of attempts by Russia to undermine such diplomatic efforts and gain the support of Pyongyang against Washington’s denuclearisation pressure on North Korea. At the same time of writing, it is also important for the Chinese leader to convince the Japanese that the diplomatic efforts he is making on the Korean Peninsula are in their own interests and aimed at bringing stability to the region.
This would be an open diplomacy by Xi Jinping, and thus his support for the peninsula’s stability would be more convincing. This would also be more in line with China’s larger ambition of playing a greater role in regional affairs. If Xi also holds talks with Russia and Japan at the same time, then he would be able to avert the worst risk for regional diplomacy: for it to split into two channels with China being left out in the cold. The visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to North Korea is thus not just a matter for Pyongyang; it is also a test for China.
This will be a high-stakes exercise for the Seoul government as well. In order to bring about a change in the current stalemate in the inter-Korean dialogue, Xi needs to translate all the gestures that he has been extending to Pyongyang thus far into concrete actions. Were this to happen, the visit by Xi to the North would no doubt facilitate an early resumption of talks between the two divided sides of the Korean Peninsula and ease the current rival animosities between Seoul and Pyongyang.
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Simon Hutagalung
Simon Hutagalung is a retired Indonesian Foreign Ministry diplomat and received his Master’s degree in Political Science and Comparative Politics from the City University of New York. He writes opinion pieces for Europeantimes and all opinions expressed in his article are his own.
