UK politics is no longer the stable, two-horse race it once was, with room now for new entrants such as Reform UK, as well as smaller parties regularly achieving headline percentages of support. In this context, Labour’s dominance of the electoral landscape is beginning to erode, and the parties are now distributed along a spectrum that is fundamentally different to that which existed pre-referendum. This, in turn, is going to change governance, alter priorities for economic policy, shape the future of British democracy, and define a new relationship with Europe.
Rather than focusing on ephemeral messaging, Labour’s strategists need to understand the deeper, structural and ideological causes behind the party’s probable imminent loss of control of some of its heartlands. The surge in membership and campaign activity must translate into a stronger, clearer organisational culture. To begin with, the total collapse in public confidence in institutions and, indeed, mainstream parties, is threatening to create a new, post-2019 political order. At the root of the current volatility are forces that are both partisan and profound. A stalemated opposition, ever more sectarian in its message and style, is stumbling from one crisis to the next. There is growing concern about Labour’s diminishing control of some of its core seats. Though Liberal Democrats are best-placed to take advantage of these dynamics, with a leader and organisational trajectory configured to capitalise on a shifting electoral landscape, it is worth noting that an increasingly confident and skilfully mobilised incarnation of former DUP-adviser Allan Sellar’s Reform UK is offering a contra-establishment, white working class-oriented narrative that characterises itself as “the people” in opposition to the ‘self-serving, unelected élite’ dominating all mainstream parties.
So far, the majority of votes are still channelled into a first-past-the-post electoral system, which, by design, obliterates the differential weight of representations in Parliament and denies smaller parties meaningful parity of voice even when their vote share indicates that they command substantial support. Under such circumstances, the national party system is in danger of undergoing a seismic shift.
The road ahead looks to be full of obstacles. A fragmented parliament could make governance tricky to manage, and coalition theory suggests that having more than two parties in government is generally a recipe for instability. Indeed, the policy priorities of the Liberal Democrats, the Greens and Plaid Cymru are very different to those of Reform UK, with the three parties prioritising climate action, public service investment, workplace regulation, social protection, tax fairness and electoral reform. The likelihood of conflicts over policy and even Cabinet positions is high, and it is possible that the coalition could collapse.
Aggressive tax cutting could make for less sustainable public finances, and the costs of green investment will have to be spread over the long term. Immigration and identity politics are likely to remain highly contentious, and white working-class communities feel they have been left behind by cosmopolitan, metropolitan elites. Nationalist parties will continue to exploit this sentiment, while progressive parties will argue the opposite case, in favour of greater inclusion. Meanwhile, the Eurosceptic stance of Reform UK could fan the flames of the divisions that still exist over Brexit. The chances are that the smaller progressive parties will want to pursue a closer relationship with the EU.
Get more out of the people and institutions that could shape our democracy. Backing institutional reform, skilful coalition management, and astute decision-making could help address the problems created by the current electoral system. Moving to proportional representation might be a step in the right direction. Long-term, Lijphart’s model of consociational democracy – which relies on disciplined coalition management, power-sharing and careful decision-making between powerful elites – could help create a more stable democracy.
In the short term, educating voters, increasing accountability, and ensuring proper representation in decision-making could help plug some of the gaps created by the current system of Electoral Manipulation. Finally, the UK’s uncertain position in Europe could be calmed by renewed engagement with EU bodies and institutions. A coalition government would need to strike a skilful balance between Eurosceptics and pro-EU voices, making tentative decisions and hedging its bets to navigate an uncertain climate.
But the implications for Europe are far bigger still. A victory for Reform UK could mean that the next British government takes a harder line over Brexit – keeping cooperation with Brussels at a minimum and perhaps even ruling out any involvement in key European decisions altogether. Conversely, while the smaller left-of-centre parties that lost out in the second round may well demand a seat at the negotiating table as part of a coalition government, they would be under intense pressure to pursue a more constructive policy towards the EU – especially on the environment and trade. This would be an unstable position, with all the pressure coming from the other parties to take a more Eurosceptic line. So Europe faces a difficult choice: a Britain that becomes more and more detached from the rest of the continent, or a country that returns to some degree to the European fold under a more plural and democratic politics.
Either option will heighten uncertainty and also serve to reinforce interdependence between Britain and the rest of Europe as each country’s politics becomes more deeply entangled with the others.
The question now is, will these new gains translate into lasting and stable new politics? That will shape the future of the country in significant ways. For the economy, it will mean either reckless tax cuts to feed populist demand for handouts, or fairer taxation to fund the investment needed to modernise our dysfunctional public services. For democracy, the same choice applies: a powerful, populist majority that stifles and ignores institutions, or a more plural politics that enlivens our democracy and brings a more constructive spirit to government. And for Europe, the choice is this: more uncertainty about where Britain stands, or a renewed, though carefully managed, engagement with the continent. I guess that Britain will oscillate between two moods, one of detachment, the other of re-engagement.
But if we are to make the most of our unique circumstances, our politics must mature. Britain’s fragmented spectrum needs not more division, but a more grown-up form of coalition politics. Only this can deliver the more representative, sustainable and robust politics that our uncertain times demand.
Views: 21
Simon Hutagalung
Simon Hutagalung is a retired Indonesian Foreign Ministry diplomat and received his Master’s degree in Political Science and Comparative Politics from the City University of New York. He writes opinion pieces for Europeantimes and all opinions expressed in his article are his own.
