The upcoming ASEAN–Russia Commemorative Summit in Kazan on June 18, 2026 to commemorate the 35th anniversary of diplomatic relations between ASEAN and Russia will not only provide an opportunity for both sides to highlight their cooperation over the past three and a half decades, assess achievements and map out new directions and sectors for future cooperation, but also serve as a geopolitical test for Russia’s ability to maintain its partnerships and interests in Asia while under sanctions by the West and for ASEAN’s ability to remain inclusive while strengthening its credibility as the central player in regional affairs in the face of growing rivalry and contestation.
For Moscow, the event in Kazan will be a statement to the world of Russia’s staying power in Asia. Since it invaded Ukraine, Russia has been under a strict sanction’s regime imposed by the Western world. However, Moscow is also seeking to maintain and even strengthen its partnerships in Asia. The subjects of the summit energy security, the digital economy, AI, biosafety, and food security offer the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) a wide range of areas in which it seeks to diversify its interests and develop its economies. The Business Forum that will be attended by ASEAN businessmen will discuss ways to boost trade and investment between the Association and Russia, with a view to developing integration with the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) and strengthening Russia’s position in Asia.
In addition, Russia has of late started to invest large sums of money in soft power in ASEAN. In terms of practical implementation, this is expressed by the large number of scholarships given to students from ASEAN to study at MGIMO University, by exchange programs for teachers and students, as well as by tourism development programs in the member states of ASEAN. The long-term goal is to create a positive image of Russia and establish strong ties of friendship and cooperation with the peoples of the region. The networks created can be relied upon in times of crisis to express their support for Russia and defend its interests.
However, many serious challenges are impeding the successful realisation of the summit. Most notably, the continuing war in Ukraine is casting a dark shadow over the summit. All Western countries are interested in ascertaining whether, in engaging with Russia, ASEAN is putting pressure on the Kremlin to end the conflict. This can create a serious reputational problem for ASEAN, as it could give the impression that the organisation does not care much for violations of international law and is willing to engage with any country. This would contravene the spirit of the organisation’s founding document, the ASEAN Declaration, and could undermine its credibility as a leading player in regional diplomacy.
Viewing Russia through different prisms, ASEAN countries implement very different foreign policies toward Moscow. While Vietnam and Laos have military cooperation with Russia and historic relations between them and the country, the Philippines and Singapore view Russia with scepticism and even with hostility. Their distrust towards Russia is clearly demonstrated in their refusal to cooperate with Moscow in any way. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand take a more neutral stance in their policies toward Russia, and thus are likely to engage Moscow in dialogue. If the Kazan summit fails to yield any results and is reduced to empty declarations, then all doubts regarding ASEAN’s solidarity will be proved.
A further complication lies in the fact that there is an existing implementation gap within ASEAN–Russia cooperation frameworks. Much of the existing framework consists of very general declaratory statements and lacks substance or tangible goals. Thus, even though there will be much fanfare accompanying the summit, in the end it will likely be judged by whether it results in any tangible change, especially for both Russia and ASEAN. Russia will need to prove that its “Asia pivot” is real, while ASEAN will need to ensure that any resulting cooperation brings tangible benefits to its individual member states.
The China factor will, however, play a major role in how Russia conducts its diplomatic initiatives with ASEAN. It is well known that China has significant economic, security and even political influence on ASEAN member states, and it would be unrealistic for Russia to try and compete directly with China for influence in the region. Instead, Russia must define its own role in Asia and ASEAN. Importantly, ASEAN must also be able to manage the delicate balance of its relations with both major powers and not allow rivalry between them to lead to an increase in regional tensions and to put a strain on its own relations with China.
ASEAN must therefore calibrate its approach towards Russia in a manner that is to their interest. By structuring cooperation with ASEAN around practical, non-sensitive areas such as education, science, energy, and people-to-people exchange, ASEAN can continue to maintain an open-door policy and keep internal differences under control. In the meantime, it can also pursue pilot projects with concrete and measurable outcomes such as joint research, student and business exchanges.
The summit thus shall be remembered not so much for celebrating thirty-five years of ASEAN–Russia ties, but more so for how ASEAN could sustain its openness to a major power that is currently being sanctioned by the West and yet remain relevant and maintain its credibility. The way inclusive diplomacy could function and endure in a world of multipolar rivalries where there are too many players is something that ASEAN could find out during this summit. The test case shall thus reflect on how far ASEAN could keep its diplomacy practical, balanced, and institutionally credible today.
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Simon Hutagalung
Simon Hutagalung is a retired Indonesian Foreign Ministry diplomat and received his Master’s degree in Political Science and Comparative Politics from the City University of New York. He writes opinion pieces for Europeantimes and all opinions expressed in his article are his own.
