There is a dangerous temptation in Beijing today; the belief that China’s rise is not the product of contingency, effort, and reform, but rather the inevitable unfolding of historical destiny. This shift in mindset, from pragmatic striving to deterministic triumphalism, carries profound risks, both for China itself and for the global economy.
China’s extraordinary growth over the past four decades was not preordained. It was the result of deliberate policy experimentation, openness to global trade, and a willingness to learn from mistakes. Success was contingent; dependent on reforms like Deng Xiaoping’s embrace of markets, the decision to join the WTO, and the painstaking construction of export-driven industries.
But when leaders begin to view this trajectory as destiny, they risk forgetting the fragility of progress. Destiny implies inevitability, a march toward greatness immune to error or external shock. Contingency reminds us that prosperity is precarious, requiring constant vigilance, adaptation, and humility.
It is a trap of Historical Determinism if Beijing convinces itself that national rejuvenation is guaranteed then it may dismiss Western warnings about overreach, debt, or trade imbalances as mere obstacles in a preordained path. This mindset breeds arrogance, the refusal to compromise, the rejection of dialogue, and the belief that others must eventually yield to China’s “inevitable” rise.
Such determinism is not only intellectually flawed; it is strategically perilous. It blinds policymakers to the possibility of failure and makes confrontation with the West more likely.
Should China ignore warnings and double down on destiny-driven policies, the result could be a vicious trade war. The West, unwilling to accept mercantilist practices or unchecked industrial subsidies, would retaliate with tariffs, sanctions, and technological decoupling.
The consequences would be devastating. Global supply chains fractured, raising costs for consumers worldwide. Chinese exports throttled, undermining the very industries that fueled its rise. Foreign investment drained, as uncertainty and hostility deter capital. Domestic growth slowed, leaving millions of workers vulnerable.
In this scenario, the dream of national rejuvenation collapses; not because China lacked capacity, but because it mistook destiny for discipline.
Great powers that succumb to historical determinism often stumble. Imperial Japan believed its expansion was destiny, only to meet ruin in war. The Soviet Union assumed its ideological triumph was inevitable, only to collapse under the weight of economic stagnation. China risks repeating these mistakes if it forgets that success is earned, not ordained.
China’s leaders must remember that prosperity is not guaranteed. It is the product of effort, reform, and cooperation. To preserve its rise, Beijing must resist the allure of destiny and embrace the humility of contingency. Only by acknowledging the fragility of success can China avoid the trap of arrogance and the catastrophe of a trade war.
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Khedroob Thondup
Khedroob Thondup is the son of Gyalo Thondup, elder brother of the Dalai Lama. Educated at St. Stephens College Delhi University and the University of San Francisco. He was a personal assistant to the Dalai Lama and accompanied him on his first trip to the U.S. in 1979. He was sent by the Dalai Lama to Beijing from 1980 till 1993 for dialogue talks where he interacted with Xi Zhongxun and Hu Jintao. He has served as Member of the Tibetan Parliament in Exile for three terms and is the President of the Tibetan Refugee Self Help Centre Darjeeling since 1987. He has edited two books, Dalai Lama My Son and Tibet in Turmoil and presently lives in Taipei, Taiwan.
